Possible Crisis in the Mediterranean
7/18 - International News & Geopolitics Analysis
While Europe remains fixated on Ukraine, a parallel crisis has been rapidly escalating in North Africa—threatening not only European border security but also reshaping the Mediterranean power balance. Libya, once a peripheral concern for many EU leaders, is now emerging as the next major geopolitical flashpoint driven by growing Russian influence, surging migrant flows, and stalled diplomatic efforts.
Libya’s Resurgence as a Strategic Threat
Over the past several months, Libya has seen a sharp increase in migrant departures, renewed regional rivalries, and heightened foreign involvement, all of which have brought the fractured North African state back into the realm of Europe’s security concerns.
Italy and Greece have led the charge in sounding the alarm, warning NATO and EU partners that ignoring Libya could have devastating consequences. Both countries have recently faced major spikes in illegal arrivals from Libya, with Greece receiving nearly 9,000 migrants on the island of Crete since January—almost twice the total from the previous year. These arrivals have accelerated rapidly in recent weeks, prompting Athens to declare an emergency and suspend asylum processing for North African arrivals by sea.
Meanwhile, Italy is growing increasingly uneasy about a more insidious development: the expanding footprint of Russian influence in eastern Libya. From military cooperation with warlord Khalifa Haftar to ambitions for a Mediterranean naval base in Tobruk, Moscow is quietly leveraging Libya as a new beachhead on NATO’s southern flank.
Russia’s Expanding Role
Russia’s strategy in Libya appears to be multifaceted and long-term. After losing its lease at Syria’s Tartus port following the fall of Asad’s regime in Damascus, Moscow is seeking alternative access to the Mediterranean. Libya, with its political fragmentation and proximity to Europe, presents an ideal alternative.
Recent intelligence and diplomatic assessments suggest Russia is pushing for a permanent naval installation in Tobruk, a strategic port under Haftar’s control. Moreover, Moscow reportedly plans to install missile systems at a southern Libyan base in Sebha—raising concerns that Europe could be within striking range of Russian weaponry from African soil.
Though most analysts agree that such missile deployments remain a longer-term risk, the immediate reality is that Russia already uses Libyan airfields and bases to support operations across the continent, especially through its rebranded Wagner Group paramilitary successor—the “Africa Corps.” These military platforms allow Russia to sustain logistics across the Sahel and influence arms trafficking, resource extraction, and proxy conflicts.
Adding to European anxiety is the potential weaponization of migration. Southern European officials fear that Russia may replicate the strategy used along the EU’s eastern borders—where it helped funnel refugees through Belarus into Poland—as a form of hybrid warfare.
European Diplomacy Flounders
Despite rising tensions, recent EU efforts to assert influence in Libya have fallen flat. A visit by EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner—accompanied by ministers from Italy, Greece, and Malta—ended in diplomatic humiliation when the delegation was declared unwelcome by Haftar’s forces in Benghazi and promptly expelled.
The attempt, meant to open dialogue and explore cooperation, instead highlighted Europe’s eroding influence in the region. Officials had hoped to discuss the possibility of replicating Tunisia’s controversial 2023 deal—where the EU paid Tunisian authorities to curb migration. But few believe such an arrangement would work in Libya, where militia dominance, political fragmentation, and competing foreign agendas make coordination nearly impossible.
At the same time, key European military players like France remain hesitant to engage meaningfully. Despite a recent meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and French President Emmanuel Macron, concrete collaboration has failed to materialize. Italian officials acknowledge that while Paris shares general concerns, it does not view Libya with the same urgency. France, still reeling from strategic setbacks in Mali and Niger, is reluctant to draw attention to its declining regional influence just as Russia steps into the vacuum.
Greece is not only facing a migration emergency—it is also engaged in a simmering geopolitical struggle with Turkey over maritime claims in the Mediterranean. Ankara’s energy exploration deals with Libya’s western government claim maritime zones extending south of Crete—zones that Athens considers illegitimate under international law.
To assert its position, Greece has deployed warships to patrol near Libyan waters, hoping to deter further encroachment and address the migrant flow. Yet, Greek defense officials remain skeptical about the effectiveness of military patrols, noting that such operations often encourage migrants to jump overboard and trigger rescue obligations. Nonetheless, the moves highlight growing fears that the Mediterranean is becoming a contested zone, where migration, energy, and foreign influence converge.
Analysis:
The escalating situation in Libya underscores a widening blind spot in Western security strategy. While Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to dominate headlines and military resources, its quieter push into Libya may be just as consequential. By combining military entrenchment, political manipulation, and migration control, Moscow is gaining leverage on the North African front the West seems reluctant to address.
For Italy and Greece, the stakes are immediate. Migrant surges threaten social stability, naval tensions with Turkey are intensifying, and the fear of Russian missile deployments looms over the horizon. Yet their warnings are largely going unheeded. EU solidarity appears fragmented, NATO is disengaged, and the U.S. is distracted.
With the increasing urgency and growing threat of migration, for Europe, allowing an adversarial power to weaponize this phenomenon and ignoring Libya now may come at a high cost later.